Simulation of Hurricane Isabel Using the Advanced Circulation Model (ADCIRC)

Hurricane Isabel made landfall near Drum Inlet, about 240 km south of the Chesapeake Bay mouth, on the Outer Banks of North Carolina at 1700 UTC (GMT 12:00), September 18, 2003. Hurricane Isabel is considered to be one of the most significant tropical cyclones to affect portions of northeastern North Carolina and eastcentral Virginia. The ADvanced CIRCulation Model (ADCIRC) model was applied to the Chesapeake Bay to simulate Hurricane Isabel. High-resolution grids were placed inside the Bay and tributaries, and coarse grids were placed outside of the Bay. The spatial grid resolution in the Bay mainstem is about 200 to 1000 m and the spatial grid resolution in the tributaries ranges from 50–700 m. A parametric wind model was used to drive the model. The model results show that, with the use of a parametric wind model, the model can predict the peak surge and storm tide histories along the Bay mainstem and tributaries. The model was used to analyze the impact of sea level rise on surge and inundation prediction.